New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has shown household spending climbed for a second consecutive month in November 2025, reinforcing economic momentum and amplifying speculation around the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming February 2026 policy decision.
Key figures (ABS monthly household spending indicator)
- Monthly increase: Household spending rose 1.0% in November 2025—following an upwardly revised 1.4% increase in October 2025.
- Annual growth: Spending surged 6.3% year-over-year, marking the strongest pace since September 2023.
- Seasonal trend: This is the first back-to-back monthly rise of 1%+ since October 2022.
Spend by sector
- Discretionary goods & services led the charge:
- Furnishings & household equipment soared 2.2%
- Clothing & footwear rose 2.0%
- Recreation & culture climbed 1.7%
- Goods spending overall rose 0.9%, while services spending increased by 1.2%.
State-by-state highlights
Every jurisdiction recorded gains:
- Western Australia led with a 1.7% upswing (annual +8.9%)
- Queensland and Victoria each posted 1.0% increases.
What’s driving the surge?
A combination of festive-period shopping, major entertainment events, and promotions sustained momentum:
- Black Friday and end-of-year retail sales boosted goods spending.
- Concerts, sporting fixtures, dining out continued to fuel services spending.
Economists weigh in
CBA: “The breadth of spending across nearly all categories means the RBA will be concerned about inflation remaining elevated. We’re expecting a 25bp hike in February.”
ANZ: Strong consumer demand complicates the RBA’s policy direction, despite signs of cooling in housing.
Inflation & RBA outlook
Inflation remains stubbornly above target (CPI at ~3.4% annually), giving the RBA little room to ease. Despite three rate cuts in 2025 (bringing the cash rate down to 3.60%), commentary from RBA officials indicates that near-term cuts are highly unlikely, with repeated signals that further tightening could be warranted if spending continues apace.
Next RBA meeting: 3 February 2026 — with November’s robust household spending data likely tipping the scales toward a potential rate increase.
Need guidance? Contact our team today for a financial health check or to review your loan strategy before the February 2026 RBA decision.